The Macao Open is finished and the last patch of the year is in. This one will last a few weeks until mid January due to holidays so buckle up, there's a ton to cover!
Let's begin by re-visiting the Anomaly mechanic which has evolved (heh) greatly since our initial analysis.
The Anomaly mechanic has fundamentally changed. Now you can see repeats at any given time after your 12th reroll. Anecdotally, many players have reported seeing several repeats within their first 12, but the information is unreliable because no one has the clips to back it up yet. Regardless, this means that on average you should be heavily weighing your anomaly choices to be willing to pick something in your first 12 choices. This also is somewhat of a buff to low gold count because your first set of rolls are the most impactful. Players in the past were reluctant to roll their gold on 4-5 because it would set them up poorly for the Anomaly round. This doesn't mean to send to 0 every turn for you 4-cost on Stage 4 though.
With several buffs and nerfs to Anomalies, you must be willing to take more anomalies. Previously, we mentioned that carry anomalies will be favored. Then, as the meta developed around OP frontline like Garen, everyone began taking tank anomalies. Tank choices still are always safe choices especially on a low gold count. Players are also evaluating Utility choices such as Touch of Frost or Repulsor have also grown in popularity.
AD anomalies are also underrated. We've seen top competitors on ladder and tournament pick up obscure anomalies such as Wolf Familiars, Mini Mees, and Strength Training.
(Note: Values on these anomalies may have changed)
To put it succinctly, there are only a few anomalies that are truly unpickable. Be mindful about how much gold you are spending on Anomalies because it will have have high impact on your placement range. Of course, this is assuming you aren't low rolling and playing for a not-8th scenario.
S-tier: Chem Baron, Rebels, Automata (Nocturne / 6 Auto), Renata Visionaries
A-tier: Family, Black Rose, Emissaries, Academy Sentinel, Enforcers, Conquerors
Chem Barons rule the meta with their unreal winrate over 30%+ at all ranks. At GM+, Chem Baron emblem winrate is 40%!! Simply unreal level of dominance. If you see one at 2-1 in the beginning, you should already be planning for second place and focusing on HP preservation. You can try to grief the Chem Baron player by open forting against it in Stage 2 / early Stage 3, but we want to reassure you that it only is a minor bump in the road. 400 cashout is more than enough to win the game in the hands of a competant CB player. On the flip side, if you are the Chem Baron player, the #1 thing to keep in mind is to prioritize taking good losses. Two units to pay attention to: Renni is stronger than she looks, especially if you give her items and Renata is much stronger this patch. This will make it tempting to slam items on them at times to kill 2+ enemies per round. Use your removers liberally as needed. In the end, you only need really one for the cashout anyways. If you want a more in-depth guide on Chem Barons, check out Frodan's video on a Dishsoap game.
How the World Champ Plays Chem-Baron for Free LP!
Rebels are also quite dominant mainly thanks to their highest burst potential and their crazy strong cap around Viktor. The chain stun can lock down enemies for a few seconds and crucially turn the tides of any fight. The main problem with Rebels is that Illaoi is extremely contested this patch due to the popularity of some reroll comps (Visionaries) and Academy. Rebels without Illaoi 2 are much less threatening. You can play Rebel without the emblem, but it is much more rigid and you absolutely need to hit Illaoi 2 / Zoe 2 quickly in order to convert to a top finish. We recommend against contesting Rebels without an emblem. The upside of Rebel emblem is that it is surprisingly flexible. Ambessa, Corki, Heimer, Leblanc, Ekko, or even Nami are totally fine holders if you upgrade them and duo carry alongside Zoe.
Automata has two main comps people are playing: Artifact Nocturne reroll or Kogmaw Fast 9. If you have artifacts for Nocturne, it's less important to hit 6 Automata and you can settle for 4 Auto/4 Quickstriker instead. If you are playing Kogmaw, however, you absolutely need Automata emblem for 6 Automata or you stop winning at all Stage 5+. Once you do get 6 Auto online, you can steamroll lobbies and stat check anyone who is lacking DPS or shred. Place the emblem on any durable frontline (Blitz, Mundo, Garen) and witness 2* units with 6 Automata true Fast 9. If you can get to Automata emblem on Mel, you'll likely win the game. The new Change of Fate augment in particular is incredible if you have a stong Automata spot.
Visionary Reroll is the new tech for the patch and the comp performed very well at the Macao Open. It has a lot of nuance for a reroll comp: positioning, itemization priority, what level to roll on, which units to chase for 3*, augment selection, and more. For now, if you are uncontested, we recommend slow rolling on level 5 for Singed 3 as the first priority. Singed buffing Renata is the true key to the composition. If you can get Ultimate Hero for 4* Singed, you can even play for the win-out. The best performing augments for the comp appear to be things that synergize with Sentinel scaling. Starry Night is the best econ augment for this composition by far. Investment Strategy, Powered Shielding, and Bulky Buddies are some of the best combats you can ask for. And No Scout, No Pivot gives you a mix of all kinds of stats you could ask for. The comp can potentially winout if you have this setup, but otherwise plan to aim for a consistent top 2 or 3 from behind.
The A-tier comps are all in a great spot. They are powerful and land strong top 4+ finishes when piloted correctly. But they likely will get out capped by the top end version of S-tier comps so expect to play for 2nd/3rd often when your opponents hit max power. Most notably, Academy Sentinel and Emissaries are seeing a massive surgence in popularity due to their flexibility around Corki. Sadly, the only Corki setup that is not very reliable is Scrap, but he is nearly playable from any generic AD spot with solid tempo and econ. There are some situational comps in this tier like Conquerors and Enforcers that perform very well, but your likelihood of playing them is much lower due to their reliance on the spatula.
Two comps right now that are underplayed in our opinion. The first comp recommended by Dishsoap is Form Swapper Reroll featuring Gangplank 3 and Swain 3.
Because Gangplank melee form got a huge AD buff, he is much stronger and intimidating late game once you get him to 3*. The general flow is:
Stage 2 - Gangplank as a melee carry early game
Stage 3/4 - Gangplank backline until you 3* him
Stage 4/5 - Frontline melee GP as a corner carry
Of course, this is just a general guideline and situationally you may inverse all of these options.
Swain 3 is a bit more complicated because his 3* melee form is quite poor for a tank. His ranged carry version is quite strong at 3* but then you run into tank issues in the mid game. For now we recommend:
Stage 2 - Play Swain as a melee tank early game
Stage 3/4 - If you upgrade front (ex: Rell 2), transition tank items to her and backline Swain with AP items. Otherwise, keep tanking Swain
Stage 4/5 - Backline Swain 3 with AD items
The rest of the core build is quite flexible. You can play support trait units like shown in the guide or even play vertical Conquerors if you hit an emblem. There is still more exploration to be done about this comp so feel free to experiment and have fun!
The second comp we'd recommend to keep an eye on is Tristana carry. She is quite volatile because of her snowbally nature but the data implies that she is quite good not only with Sentinel frontline, but also Bruiser frontline. With Illaoi being super contested every lobby, Bruisers seem to be much easier to hit as you only need 1 Elise to unlock its trait.
It may spark the question -- Is Bruiser frontline a good alternative to all the Sentinel running around? It likely will perform better if its uncontested but if it becomes more popular, it's also likely it will drop significantly in performance as part of the reason the stats look good is when you can chase Renni 3 or Nunu 3 for free. One of our Patrons, Packy, tried the tech out and cruised to an easy first.
As always we end with the best openers for you to consider on Stage 1 and 2. The strength of these openers largely depend on upgrades and items so don't only hold the best units if you are giving up pairs of other solid units.
S tier: Automata Nocturne, Conquerors Draven, Academy Sentinel Lux
A tier: Rebel Visionary Vex, Family Violet, Black Rose, Enforcer Maddie
B tier: Chem Baron, Ambushers, Bruisers, Watchers, Scrap
Here is our tier list of 1-costs to hold early as defined by likelihood to result in a streak if you upgrade and play around them. Top row = best, bottom row = worst:
And our 2-costs to hold early:
Finally, our 3-cost tier list to keep from orb for Stage 2:
These are all based on 1 and 2-cost openers. The more effective boards you can build for cheap, the higher the tier. This is because you're more likely to 2* units and snowball momentum. If you need to 2* a unit to be effective (example: Urgot 2), then it makes it hard to justify holding for unlikeliness of upgrading + impact on your economy.
That's all for now. Thanks for being a loyal Patreon sub! If you have any further questions, feel free to drop them in our Discord server. See you on ladder!